Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Slips to $83.30; Bullish Recovery Ahead?

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Published: Jul 4, 2024, 06:05 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Weaker U.S. data suggests potential cooling of the world's top oil consumer's economy.
U.S. crude shipments to Europe hit a two-year low as buyers opt for cheaper oil.
Economic slowdown might lead the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, boosting oil demand.

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Slips to $83.30; Bullish Recovery Ahead?

Market Overview

Oil prices dropped in Asia on Thursday, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment and business data, indicating a potential cooling of the world’s top oil consumer’s economy.

Citi analysts highlighted that while geopolitical and weather risks remain, the physical market’s strength may diminish post-summer due to potential hurricane threats. U.S. crude shipments to Europe hit a two-year low in June, with European buyers opting for cheaper alternatives.

However, a rebound in purchases could occur in July and August. The ADP Employment report showed private payrolls increased by 150,000 in June, missing expectations, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing index fell to a four-year low.

This economic slowdown might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, potentially boosting oil demand. Despite the decline, U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles fell more than expected, providing some support to prices.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.434, up 0.70%. The 2-hour chart shows a pivot point at $2.41. Immediate resistance levels are $2.48, $2.53, and $2.58. Support levels are at $2.38, $2.35, and $2.31.

Technical indicators show the 50 EMA at $2.51 and the 200 EMA at $2.67, suggesting a bullish trend. NG remains bullish above $2.41, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

Today, USOIL is trading at $83.29, down 0.28%. The 2-hour chart shows a pivot point at $83.12. Immediate resistance is at $83.75, with further resistance at $84.31 and $84.89. Support levels are $82.40, $81.89, and $81.39.

Technical indicators include the 50 EMA at $82.80 and the 200 EMA at $80.93, suggesting a bullish trend. USOIL remains bullish above $83.12, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

UKOIL is trading at $86.80, down 0.21%. The 2-hour chart identifies a pivot point at $86.66. Immediate resistance is at $87.40, followed by $87.87 and $88.27. Support levels are at $86.13, $85.69, and $85.15.

Technical indicators show the 50 EMA at $86.19 and the 200 EMA at $84.60, indicating a bullish trend. UKOIL remains bullish above $86.66, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.